Empty grocery store shelves and adverse economic impact to certain industries occurred in the recent past with the most prominent example being the November 2018 Food and Drug Administration advisory shutting down the supply chain for Romaine lettuce. Produce recalls or FDA advisories thus provide some experience for the current situation caused by the coronavirus epidemic.
“It’s interesting to think about the two of them next to each other,” said Ashley Nickle, who is the editor of Produce Retailer and the retail editor of The Packer.
Although product withdrawals and the quarantine both resulted in grocery shortages, the first involved the supply of goods while the second originated from increased demand.
“It’s more a contrast than a comparison to each other,” Nickle said. “My thoughts are that these two situations are only similar in the way they highlight the consistent and efficient nature of the U.S. food supply chain.
“We normally never think twice about whether the produce items we want are going to be available in stores because they nearly always are,” Nickle said. “The situation we’re in now is completely unprecedented, and supermarkets and their partners – suppliers, wholesalers, and others – have done a remarkable job continually restocking stores amid the panic buying that has been prompted by the spread of the coronavirus.”
Produce Retailer and The Packer are both publications of the Farm Journal company based in the Kansas City suburb of Lenexa, Kansas. Nickle grew up in the eastern Kansas town of Olathe although not on a farm, but she has been with Farm Journal since June 2016 and thus has dealt with recalls and FDA advisories over the past four years.
“It was one of the first things,” she said. “It made an impression on me starting out there.”
An outbreak of E. coli was traced to Romaine lettuce grown in California, and in November 2018 the FDA issued its advisory which included that stores, restaurants, and other commercial establishments withdraw and destroy all Romaine lettuce.
“Thanksgiving 2018 was a big one where they kind of shut down the supply chain for Romaine,” Nickle said. “That was kind of the big one, but there have been others as well.”
An FDA advisory is larger in scope than a recall. “A recall is usually done by the company itself,” Nickle said.
Although the company makes the decision for a recall sometimes that is the result of periodic FDA or state agency testing. “The company will probably recall whatever products were processed on that line,” Nickle said.
On March 23 Guan’s Mushroom Company recalled all of its 200 gram (7.05 ounce) Enoki mushrooms due to the threat of listeria contamination; although no illnesses have been reported State of California testing determined the presence of listeria in a 200 gram package. In August 2019 Dole Fresh Vegetables, Inc., recalled specific lot codes of six-ounce and ten-ounce spinach due to a salmonella find during Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development testing.
Recalls can also be limited to specific dates or stores. “A recall is usually more targeted in nature,” Nickle said. “With recalls you can usually be limited in scope. FDA advisories the last couple of years were not.”
The FDA advisory for Romaine lettuce was the only such product-wide notice since Nickle began with the Farm Journal chain. “The FDA advisory a couple of years ago was a very rare and severe incidence,” she said.
Nickle is aware of an FDA advisory in which all bagged spinach was withdrawn in 2006 after an E. coli infection resulted in the deaths of five people. “It’s really only happened a few times that I’m aware of,” she said. “It happens really, really rarely, but obviously it’s a huge impact when it does.”
In addition to the withdrawal of Romaine lettuce from stores, restaurants, and other food facilities the harvesting and shipping of Romaine lettuce was also halted.
“It was a really big deal for the industry,” Nickle said.
Following the FDA advisory grocery shelves which had stocked Romaine lettuce were empty. “That was certainly the case,” Nickle said.
Stores pulled Romaine lettuce products off their shelves. “They were communicating that with consumers,” Nickle said.
Recalls and FDA advisories both result in economic losses for certain industry segments. “That certainly is the case with a recall,” Nickle said.
The economic losses are greater for an advisory. “Of course it has economic repercussions and that’s definitely been the case in a different way with our current situation,” Nickle said.
Although the coronavirus quarantine will likely have a minimal economic impact on farmers and packers, produce wholesalers are currently providing fewer products to restaurants and schools. “That’s a huge drop in your business,” Nickle said.
Those reduced sales may adversely affect the farms if commodity prices are lowered. The loss to the wholesalers is more direct. “It’s trying to figure out how to pay people and help people out,” Nickle said. “It’s ongoing for them.”
Industry groups at all levels of the supply chain are partnering to minimize any permanent effects of the economic losses. “Just a really great effort by the food industry to come together,” Nickle said.
The current grocery store shortages are greater than those for FDA advisories. “When we’ve had these advisory situations it’s that specific commodity,” Nickle said. “For this the supply chain has been completely tested the last couple of weeks as far as the capacity.”
The increased quantities of a specific item purchased are resulting in the empty shelves. “People were kind of buying more of everything,” Nickle said. “That’s the big cause of any shortage this year.”
The empty grocery shelves are restocked, so a shopper who patronizes the right store at the right time can still obtain that item. “There really hasn’t been anything that’s been totally impossible to find,” Nickle said. “It might be tougher than normal.”
The grocery shelves were empty for a longer period during the 2018 FDA advisory. “You couldn’t find any Romaine lettuce for a week or so,” Nickle said.
Because fresh produce can spoil that is usually available in grocery stores. “It’s been probably easier to keep fresh produce in stock,” Nickle said.
Produce which will not spoil has been subject to the purchasing frenzy.
“We’ve seen more increase in canned, frozen,” Nickle said. “There’s a lot of produce you can freeze.”
The largest retail sales increase for fresh produce is for potatoes, which can be stored without refrigeration. “Potatoes just about doubled their sales for two straight weeks,” Nickle said.
The increase in sales of other fresh produce is not due to hoarding. The closure of schools and restaurants along with more people working from home means that more meals are being eaten at home. “You have a whole lot more people cooking for the whole family,” Nickle said. “The whole baseline of your purchase raises also.”
An increased focus on personal health due to the coronavirus epidemic has also led to many consumers selecting healthier meal choices. “There’s all kind of stuff like that in the produce department,” Nickle said. “You just want to be healthier overall.”
Nickle does not expect an actual produce shortage. “Our supply’s looking okay for the coming months,” she said. “Even with all the demand that we’ve had recently it seems everything’s going to be pretty much supplied as normal.”
Farm Journal has 29 publications, electronic programs, and conferences. Based on weekly figures the sales of the non-perishable items which spiked in demand due to coronavirus fears have been dropping. “We should start to be getting back to a place where it’s easier to find everything,” Nickle said.
The recalls and the shortage due to the coronavirus quarantine both altered public perception about food being taken for granted. “I would say both situations are reminders of that,” Nickle said. “We’re very fortunate to be in the U.S. where we have very safe food and a very stable supply chain.”
Although contact between humans in grocery stores may spread the coronavirus, the food itself is not a risk.
“There’s no evidence that the coronavirus will be transmitted on any kind of food including produce,” Nickle said. “There is zero food safety issue with fresh produce. Not only are fruits and vegetables good for people all the time, but eating more produce is arguably more important now than ever as folks want to put themselves in the best position possible from a health perspective in these unusual times.”
